Individualized predictions of early isolated distal deep vein thrombosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Although isolated distal deep vein thrombosis (IDDVT) is a clinical complication for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients, very few clinicians value it and few methods can predict early IDDVT. This study aimed to establish and validate an individualized predictive nomogram for the risk of early IDDVT in AIS patients. METHODS: This study enrolled 647 consecutive AIS patients who were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 431) and a validation cohort (n = 216). Based on logistic analyses in training cohort, a nomogram was constructed to predict early IDDVT. The nomogram was then validated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plots. RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, gender, lower limb paralysis, current pneumonia, atrial fibrillation and malignant tumor were independent risk factors of early IDDVT; these variables were integrated to construct the nomogram. Calibration plots revealed acceptable agreement between the predicted and actual IDDVT probabilities in both the training and validation cohorts. The nomogram had AUROC values of 0.767 (95% CI: 0.742-0.806) and 0.820 (95% CI: 0.762-0.869) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Additionally, in the validation cohort, the AUROC of the nomogram was higher than those of the other scores for predicting IDDVT. CONCLUSIONS: The present nomogram provides clinicians with a novel and easy-to-use tool for the prediction of the individualized risk of IDDVT in the early stages of AIS, which would be helpful to initiate imaging examination and interventions timely.

Individualized Prediction Of Stroke-Associated Pneumonia For Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a serious and common complication in stroke patients. PURPOSE: We aimed to develop and validate an easy-to-use model for predicting the risk of SAP in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The nomogram was established by univariate and multivariate binary logistic analyses in a training cohort of 643 AIS patients. The prediction performance was determined based on the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration plots in a validation cohort (N=340). Individualized clinical decision-making was conducted by weighing the net benefit in each AIS patient by decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Seven predictors, including age, NIHSS score on admission, atrial fibrillation, nasogastric tube intervention, mechanical ventilation, fibrinogen, and leukocyte count were incorporated to construct the nomogram model. The nomogram showed good predictive performance in ROC analysis [AUROC of 0.845 (95% CI: 0.814-0.872) in training cohort, and 0.897 (95% CI: 0.860-0.927) in validation cohort], and was superior to the A2DS2, ISAN, and PANTHERIS scores. Furthermore, the calibration plots showed good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted SAP probabilities, in both training and validation cohorts. The DCA confirmed that the SAP nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram may provide clinicians with a simple and reliable tool for predicting SAP based on routinely available data. It may also assist clinicians with respect to individualized treatment decision-making for patients differing in risk level.

Reduced Vitamin D Levels are Associated with Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a common complication in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This study explored the potential relationship between serum vitamin D levels and SAP. METHODS: This study recruited 863 consecutive AIS patients. In-hospital SAP was defined as a complication that occurred after stroke, during hospitalization, that was confirmed radiographically. Serum vitamin D levels were measured within 24 hrs of admission and the patients were divided into vitamin D sufficient (>50 nmol/L), insufficient (25-50 nmol/L), and deficient (<25 nmol/L) groups. RESULTS: In this study, 102 (11.8%) patients were diagnosed with SAP. Compared to the patients without SAP, patients with SAP had significantly lower vitamin D levels (P = 0.023). The incidence of SAP was significantly higher in patients with vitamin D deficiency than in those with vitamin D insufficiency or sufficiency (21.2% vs 16.2% & 9.5%, P = 0.006). After adjusting for confounders, vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency were independently associated with SAP (OR = 3.034, 95% CI = 1.207-7.625, P = 0.018; OR = 1.921, 95% CI = 1.204-3.066, P = 0.006, respectively). In multiple-adjusted spline regression, vitamin D levels showed a linear association with the risk of SAP (P < 0.001 for linearity). CONCLUSION: Reduced vitamin D is a potential risk factor of in-hospital SAP, which can help clinicians identify high-risk SAP patients.